Dividing a population into “sealed” smaller groups can prevent a general lockdown



As the spectrum of a general lockdown becomes more visible in several European countries, in an effort to stem the momentum of the second Covid-19 pandemic wave and thus alleviate excessive stress on health systems, a new study by scientists from Germany concludes that conclusion that the greatest possible reduction of random contacts and interactions, through the fragmentation of a wider population and the relative sealing of the individual subgroups, can help limit the spread of the coronavirus. The Max Planck Organization in Gτινttingen, which published the article in the interdisciplinary journal Chaos, points out that the possibility of a general lockdown can be avoided if it is possible to effectively separate large populations into smaller groups that will not communicate with each other. The main goal is to limit accidents contacts between people of only one community and thus reduce the likelihood of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spreading to wider areas. This, in turn, could practically mean restrictions on travel between regions, counties or cities. when the number of cases exceeds a “threshold” (diagnosed infections per 100,000 inhabitants). According to the study, shops, schools and public enterprises can – at least in principle – remain open locally, provided that an area has “The goal is to find a way to create relatively normal conditions for small businesses and people’s daily activities.” “There is always a price, but the whole idea is that the next important thing after a global lockdown is to protect smaller populations,” Golestanian said. -19 and relatively mild social distancing measures in place, estimates that, if contacts and interactions between all residents are left free, the pandemic will spread exponentially, with new infections doubling every 12 days and increasing by up to 5%. However, if the population is divided and “sealed” into 100 sub-groups of 80,000 people each and at the same time stricter measures are implemented in those groups with the most cases, then the rate of new infections is estimated to slow down significantly and will not exceed 1% of the original population. This tactic – at least in theory – manages to “break” the virus transmission chain into significant Even if the epidemic “erupts” in some places, it is not expected to happen at the same time in all areas, which is important so as not to put massive pressure on a country’s health system. in lower thresholds, in order to give time to the health system, in terms of the adequacy of beds, etc. ” Golestanian said. (Source of information: ΑΠΕ – ΜΠΕ) Follow it on Google News and be the first to know all the news



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *