American elections: It’s the democracy, stupid

Writers: Petros Ioannidis – Elias TsaousakisIn May we wrote that Trump’s easy victory became a derby due to the coronavirus. The 2020 election was finally marked by extreme polarization and, of course, by the fierce personal battle between the two candidates for the US presidency, but it was mainly sealed by the unbalanced factor of the pandemic that brought the complete rearrangement of the election agenda. posing new stakes and new dilemmas to voters, such as coronary protection measures, the role of public health and accessibility. This battle seems to be over and the new President will be Biden, the candidate who has won more votes than anyone else in the history of American elections. It is noteworthy that this election records the highest voter turnout since 1900. But they also had something else. They completely divided American society. It was not just the toughness with which the two staffs struggled, the large differences in key policy issues, such as the aforementioned access to public health, and the conflict over the candidates’ personal profile characteristics, with violent attacks, extreme and the American data, extreme for the corresponding European ones, but also something more structural that divided the society in two. A reading of the quality characteristics of exit polls is revealing: For Americans with an income of less than $ 100,000, the result was 57% -42% in favor of Biden. Among those earning more than $ 100,000, Trump had 54% and Biden 43%. Biden also received 60% of those living in cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, 66% of those who voted for the first time, 76% of those who voted on the basis of who can unite the nation, 80% of those who are in favor of Obamacare, 61% of LGBT , 72% of those who believe that abortions should be legal, 80% of those who think that tackling the pandemic is above the economy, 70% of those who are in favor of Black Lives Matters and 64% of those who believe that wearing a mask is social responsibility. Trump won 54% of those living in suburban / rural areas, 78% of those opposed to Obamacare, 75% of those who believe abortions should be banned, 76% of those who put the economy above the pandemic, 71% of those who chose to vote on the basis of who is a possible leader and 85% of those who are against the Black Lives Matters[1]The past shows that the political divide had a very large social and, above all, cultural background – something that makes it deeper. Biden’s victory and the polls Despite the incredible polarization, however, the victory of the Democratic candidate is now taken for granted. At the time of writing, the difference is over 4 million votes and is growing. The polls, although smeared in the first hours after the ballot box closed, eventually showed the trend. We should not forget that the scenario we experienced because of the millions of early votes, ie the final distribution of voters, was one of the most likely, something that most analysts saw and said in the previous days, regardless of their assessment of the national vote. However, after the ballot box was closed, there was a great deal of confusion about where the result was headed. The first results were positive for Trump and the analysts and the staffs acted as if they had forgotten that just the day before, YouGov[2] recorded the intention to vote for those who had not yet voted at 69% for Trump. But for those who had voted – and there were clearly more – the vote in Biden reached 66%. For this very reason, as time went on, the percentages of the Democrats went up and the States gradually changed color. If the counting of the letter votes was done at the same time as the rest, it is clear that this thriller would not exist and the result would have been clear earlier. Probably, the panic of the first hours is largely due to the memories of the 2016 elections. Trump, although he increased the number of his votes compared to the previous contest, finally manages to lose. In fact, he lost a great deal to his own – evil – self. And maybe as the exit polls showed[3], the economy (35%) was ultimately the most important factor in selecting a candidate for voters, but also racial discrimination (20%), pandemic management (17%), the health system (11%) and of course institutional deregulation In recent years, they have played an extremely important role in the final defeat. The “Trump Symptom” of the pandemic by the outgoing President, as well as by the peculiar election campaign imposed by the health rules. Biden made fewer appearances and fewer tours, for a very long time, with a very good excuse. But this candidate, Trump failed to win in the debates that play an important role in the US elections. But he did not even manage to set the election agenda. Thus, Trump became (as everything shows) only the third US President-elect who failed to be re-elected after World War II. Of course, it should be noted that while Trump campaigned with the help of his family, Biden was strongly supported by Obama, Saunders, Cortez, most of his party executives and, of course, by a huge network of public figures who staffed the movement VOTE, to run in the election and supported a large stream of Trump voters. What the Democrats did not do as successfully as the Republican supporters did was the door-to-door campaign. Republicans have largely defied the coronavirus protection measures, making them much more active on the field than their opponents. But what emerges effortlessly in this election is the conclusion that Trump’s election in 2016 was ultimately not a “one.” accident “because he had the unpopular Clinton in front of him. It won because it expressed – and continues to express to a large extent – a frightened, xenophobic and introverted America that did not assimilate to the great changes of globalization, that dreams of an indigenous and fragmented capitalism, that is in a nationalist frenzy and feels perpetuated. An America at a historic crossroads. The “symptom”, Trump lost the election. The causes remain. Maybe the main stake in these elections was not the economy – as the exit polls showed – but the Republic itself? * Petros Ioannidis is a political analyst for aboutpeople and Elias Tsaousakis is a political scientist and strategy consultant for Cloud7[1] Exit poll of abc[2] Yougov, November 1, 2020[3] Edison Research / NEP, November 4, 2020Follow it on Google News and be the first to know all the newsSee all the latest News from Greece and the World, at

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